In theory, barring a new team COVID pause the Big 12 schedule has been updated for the last time. Even typing those words is pushing our collective luck because every time someone writes about scheduling certainty, a Baylor player reflexively shoves a used COVID test swab up their nostril, so let’s lawyer up and say this is hypothetically the final schedule.
The Basics
Current Big 12 Standings
Baylor (10-0) - 4 games remaining
W Virginia (9-4) - 4 games remaining
Kansas (11-6) - 1 game remaining
Oklahoma (9-5) - 3 games remaining
Texas (8-5) - 4 games remaining
Okla St (8-6) - 4 games remaining
Texas Tech (6-7) - 4 games remaining
TCU (4-8) - 4 games remaining
Kansas St (3-13) - 2 games remaining
Iowa St (0-14) - 4 games remaining
Texas’ Remaining Schedule
Saturday, February 27th: at Texas Tech 11 AM CT (CBS) - 43% KenPom win probability
Tuesday, March 2nd: at Iowa State 6 PM CT (ESPN+) - 85% KenPom win probability
Thursday, March 4th: at Oklahoma TBD (ESPN/ESPN2) - 47% KenPom win probability
Sunday, March 7th: at TCU 6 PM CT (ESPN+)- 78% KenPom win probability
Two Other Schedules Worth Noting
OU’s final three games: @OSU, vs OSU, vs Texas
WVU’s final four games: vs KSU, vs Baylor, vs TCU, vs OSU
Pay attention to these two teams because their remaining games are the most impactful to Texas’ final spot. Others like OSU and Tech can come into play as well, but less directly.
The Possibilities
Before I get granular, I’m going to mention the best possible conference records for each team assuming they win out in their respective remaining games. Obviously, these all can’t happen at the same time.
Baylor 14-0
WVU 13-4
Kansas 12-6
Oklahoma 12-5
Texas 12-5
OSU 12-6
Tech 10-7
TCU 8-8
KSU 5-13
ISU 4-14
1st Place
Not happening; only West Virginia has a mathematical shot at first and it involves Baylor losing all four of their remaining games with WVU winning all of theirs.
2nd Place
The cleanest path to Texas getting 2nd place is winning all of their games and Baylor beats West Virginia. There is another path for Texas getting 2nd if they go 3-1, and WVU goes 2-2 or worse, and Baylor beats Kansas, especially if one of Texas’ 3 wins is against Oklahoma. If there’s another path to 2nd, I have yet to find it.
3rd & 4th Place
Texas going 3-1 in the final four has them likely in either 3rd or 4th in the conference, though Kansas beating Baylor and/or Texas’ lone loss coming to OU could still nudge Texas down to 5th. Texas can technically still go 2-2 and finish in 4th, but it involves OU going 0-3 down the stretch so that seems relatively unlikely.
(As an aside, 3rd would be preferable to 4th because it would keep Texas out of the Baylor side of the conference bracket.)
5th & 6th Place
Texas enters this realm if they go 2-2 or 1-3 in their final four games. There are myriad outcomes in this realm because the Longhorns start to lose out on a number of tiebreakers at this point, too many to spell out here.
7th Place
There is technically a way for a 1-3 finish to end up here if one of the 3 losses is to Tech, and 0-4 probably winds up here. Texas finishing the season here would qualify as a disappointment, but ending the season 1-3 or 0-4 would be cause for larger concerns than conference tournament seeding any way.
8th Place
Yes, this is theoretically possible. If Texas goes 0-4 and TCU goes undefeated against Iowa State, Tech, WVU, and Texas, then the Longhorns could end up here, but that seems remote enough not to worry about that much.
Rooting Interests & Notes for Texas Fans
Setting aside the obvious idea of “you should want Texas to win every game”, there are a few situations which will work out in the favor of Texas:
I cannot in good conscience tell another human to root for Baylor, I would not do that to you. You’re here because you have good sense and/or you want to hate-read what I write and both are appreciated equally, so I’m not going to advocate you support Scott Drew’s roving band of superspreaders. Having said that, them winning the rest of their games makes things cleaner for Texas…so maybe just recognize that their wins are helpful without condoning the entity that won, like seeing John Cornyn finally wearing a mask in public and recognizing it is an event that happened.
The first item happening means Kansas loses their final game, which removes their shot at 2nd place. The audience nods and moves on, without reacting.
Oklahoma State going 3-1 with the loss being to Baylor helps remove Oklahoma and West Virginia from Texas’ path to 2nd place. Texas can actually drop the OU game and still finish 2nd if OSU sweeps the Sooners.
If Texas (Tech, ISU) and OU (OSU, OSU) win their remaining games, the Texas OU game becomes a de facto elimination game for 2nd place.
Texas beating Tech basically eliminates both 7th & 8th place as options for Texas. The only caveat here is that Tech winning their other games (TCU, ISU, Baylor) and Texas losing all their other games would open up 7th place as a possibility. I don’t think a Texas team that beats Kansas & Tech in consecutive games is likely to drop 3 in a row to end the year though.
Oklahoma State going undefeated would be more bad than good for Texas if Texas doesn’t run the table as well.
Most Important non-Texas Games for Texas Fans
Baylor @ Kansas - 02/27
The OU/OSU double-dip - 02/27 & 03/01
Baylor @ WVU - 03/02
Texas Tech @ Baylor - 03/07
Most any ISU, TCU, or KSU win against someone other than each other or Texas would help as well.
My Guess
I think Texas is probably headed to a 3-1 final four record which means they’re likely 3rd or 4th when the dust settles. My gut says they beat Tech, ISU, & TCU but lose to OU, though I think 4-0 is significantly more plausible than 2-2. Texas is starting to resemble the team that went 10-1 to start the season, though teams are figuring out the weak links in the roster (Greg Brown’s defense, sagging off Brock in the halfcourt, etc.) so I don’t expect things to reach the early-season peak going forward.
As for March, Texas is a lock to make the tournament and is likely locked into the 3-5 seed range barring either a big run or a total collapse, and even a big run to end the season would probably require a couple teams ahead of Texas to nosedive (Iowa & a Big 12 team like OU, as an example) before the Longhorns sniff a 2 seed.