Last night I did my taxes while watching the Tech/OSU game, which is a combination of activities I do not advise for anyone despite it providing one avenue for a lot of offense (taxes due) and another avenue for not much offense (Tech). That’s balance, but less Thanos than someone evenly distributing their punches to each testice.
The broadcast talked a lot about the game deciding who plays in the first round of the Big 12 tournament, which shouldn’t happen but probably will because conferences care more about conference TV money than March Madness money. They said this was effectively a play-in game for the 7th seed, with the loser being pretty much guaranteed the 7th seed in the tournament and having to play the 7/10 game.
NARRATOR: They aren’t guaranteed that spot. In fact, Texas could still end up there.
(You can tinker with these outcomes yourself.)
Fun fact: TCU could actually pull past Tech for 7th if they beat WVU and Iowa State this week & Texas beats Tech.
There are a host of possibilities left for Texas, anywhere from 2nd to 7th. Baylor has the first seed sewn up even if they lose all 3 games left on their schedule. The math for some of the other spots is as follows (with the caveat that the Big 12 rescheduling postponed games will change all of this):
Texas gets 2nd if:
Texas beats both Kansas & Tech, and
West Virginia loses 2+ of at TCU, at Baylor, vs KSU, and
Oklahoma loses 2+ of at KSU, vs OSU, at OSU
Texas gets 7th if:
Texas loses to both Kansas and Tech
If Oklahoma State loses both its remaining games OSU, Tech, and Texas would all be .500 and tiebreakers would end up with OSU 5th, Tech 6th, and Texas 7th. If OSU wins either of their games then it’s just Texas & Tech at .500 and Texas loses the tiebreaker there.
Texas is no worse than 6th if they win either game this week, and more likely at least 5th. Texas could conceivably finish 5th even if they win both their games, but that would require Kansas to beat Baylor. Texas winning both their games probably lands them in 4th, but they could get 3rd if that 2nd place scenario of ‘WVU loses 2+ and OU loses 2+’ becomes a ‘WVU loses 2+ or OU loses 2+’.
If you’re looking for rooting scenarios here: Iowa State, Kansas State, and/or TCU snagging a win or two helps Texas. Oklahoma State sweeping Oklahoma would do Texas some good. I’m not going to advocate rooting for Baylor because come on, but them playing to form against WVU & Kansas helps the math for Texas. It would also help if the Big 12 decided to get Texas their lost games against Iowa State and TCU since we’re going by winning percentages in an unbalanced schedule.
EDIT (6:20p): Literally two minutes after I posted this, word started leaking that the Big 12 was going to flip around/add a bunch of games. The full list was posted this afternoon:
This obviously changes all the math above, and I’ll revisit the topic in a later post. My initial thoughts are that this is good for Texas; Baylor adds 2 games against Tech & OSU and the 1 WVU game is moved, those are 3 likely losses against teams Texas is fighting for position with. Plus, Texas gets two of its easier games back (at TCU, at ISU) and a chance to give OU a loss. Texas has to handle its business, but they have a chance to build real momentum going into the off-season. All 5 games (including tonight) are winnable, they’re favored in three of them and only a mild underdog in the other two. This is a good opportunity for Texas, but they have to take advantage.