I’ll pull back the curtain on my process a little bit: the intro is often the last thing I write. Starting a recap was never easy, but starting a week recap is worse because my brain is spiraling into what all I want to talk about without fully being aware of the order of things. I leave this to last because after I’ve written all the rest I’m at least in the flow of writing, so I can attack this bit with a little rhythm and maybe start off with something humorous or insightful.

So, uhh, how’s everybody been? Good? Great. Let’s get going.

If you yanked Baylor and Gonzaga out of this year’s competition, we would probably be talking about how this is one of the most wide-open tournaments in recent memory. There are a dozen teams who could make a plausible argument that they could end up in the final weekend, and a dozen more behind them that could get hot and do it as well. That’s not really the case though, as Baylor & Gonzaga are both better than the field by a pretty wide margin. Pomeroy ranks teams with what he calls an adjusted efficiency margin, which basically ranks teams compared to the average team in a given year. The higher the number, the better your team is compared to the average D-I team. Both of them have an adjusted efficiency margin of at least +34. There have been six teams in the last 20 years to end the season with +34 or better; four of them won the national title, one made the Final Four (this was the 38-0 Kentucky squad), and another made the Sweet 16. There have never been two in the same year, but these two teams look like they’ll end up with that number going into the tourney. This is why everyone is penciling them into the title game, because the math backs up that they both are extremely high-level teams. Baylor is halfway (or more, depending on reschedules) to running the table in the Big 12, and while I still think they’ll drop a game along the way the conference title is basically theirs with 9 or so games left to play. They are as ‘for real’ as it gets.

Baylor is notorious for having a run somewhere in a game where they put things out of reach for good; in every game that was close, there was a point where they go on a 11-3 or 14-4 run and put enough space on their opponent where the game is never really in doubt from that point forward. Texas showed they’re capable of hanging with a team like Baylor when they went on a 13-4 run to start the second half, briefly taking the lead. Baylor showed why they’re a heavy favorite to get to the title game by responding with a 16-4 run of their own which put the game out of reach. Texas showed they have spurts of being as good as Baylor, Baylor showed you need more than spurts to beat them.

Jericho Sims has regressed from the line this year, and while he’s not in the Udoka Azubuike range of ‘definitely foul him’ he’s not exactly light years away. Going 2-8 from the line is 2-3 away from what I’d expect from him, but everybody else was even more awful. Greg Brown going 0-3 after getting a questionable foul call on a triple (he did stick his leg out a bit) was probably Ball Don’t Lie Theorem in action, but Andrew Jones should have made at least 2 out of 3. In a game where you need nearly everything to go right to pull an upset, 3-14 from the line helped sink Texas’ chances.

The taunting rule is dumb and gets abused by refs who don’t like demonstrative players; Brown threw down maybe the best college dunk this year, stared at Baylor, and didn’t say a word. That’s not taunting, that’s a bunch of alpha males going at it. As a point of reference, the same night a Tennessee player threw down a massive dunk nearly as impressive as this one, stared down the opponent, flexed at him, and nobody called a foul. Refs are thieves of joy and this tool needs to be removed from their toolbox, or at least it needs to be whittled way down to only deal with the most egregious offenses. The game wasn’t decided on this play - Baylor was already in the middle of their 16-4 run to seal it - but it still shouldn’t have been called. 4 of that 16 came as a result of the technical.

I have an informal metric for how bad Texas losses are: how long it takes the Texas SID to email a post-game recap. They are not the quickest group to send these out even after good wins, but the longer it takes the longer they had to work out ways to polish a turd. It’s been roughly 3.5 hours and it still has not been sent out, which means either they’ve been stuck describing positives or they chucked their phones in the water. Maybe both?

It takes a pretty impressive offensive ineptitude to hold another team to 0.83 PPP and lose. The offense sucked in just about every possible metric other than rebounding and free throws; they couldn’t hit from three, they couldn’t hit layups, they couldn’t hit midrange. THEY WENT 0-FER BOTH OVERTIMES. Andrew Jones went 2-13 (15.4%) from three and he actually helped the team average, the rest of the team went 3-22 (13.6%). I do not know what it is about that arena that turns this team into master bricklayers, but good god it’s a house of horrors from deep. That would be bad enough on its own, but the shots at the rim weren’t appreciably better; Texas was 15-44 from two, and 9 of those misses were Oklahoma State blocks. Texas wasn’t bad offensively, that word doesn’t adequately describe it. Let’s see if we can come up with some better descriptions.

Texas’ offense looked like somebody put a ram in ice skates and told them to try figure skating.

Texas’ offense looked like Jake Paul in a calculus midterm.

Texas’ offense looked like Mark Fuhrman having to buy gas at a Seagoville Citgo.

Texas’ offense looked like your grandparents trying to understand Bitcoin.

Texas’ offense looked like the first time I tried to explain the plot to Tenet to literally anyone.

Note to Texas: this is a thing that exists. You can use it whenever you like, just saying.

Oklahoma State went to a 2-3 zone and Texas responded - ‘responded’ is probably too strong a term - by dribbling the ball in place and trying to run PnR action that rarely put the zone into conflict. It’s not to say that PnR is a bad tactic, but you have to do something with it for it to be effective. It’s not effective to run a pick & roll when neither the pick nor the roll are hunting for buckets. Flashing a guy to the free throw line doesn’t do shit if you don’t throw it to him. Getting to the rim doesn’t do shit if you’re not putting your body into the defender. Passing the ball around the perimeter doesn’t do shit if you’re not making the defense move. I lost count of the number of possessions where I watched Texas do things around the perimeter that resulted in OSU defenders…not really have to do anything. It was a remarkable display of offensive ineptitude and the team should get their asses handed to them in practice over it. This was some 2018/2019 Texas offense bullshit, they kept hammering the Hard Button like it was buying Gamestop stock.

As much as free throws sucked against Baylor, they were a primary reason Texas was in the Oklahoma State game at all. Texas finished 22-27 (81.5%) from the line including Andrew Jones & Courtney Ramey going a perfect 13-13 from the line. Hell, Jericho Sims made his only attempt.

I was honestly stunned to see that Texas snagged 37% of their misses; there were chunks of this game where it felt like it was one shot and done, that they were only sending one guy to the glass to get what was a very likely miss. I attribute this surprise to spending a fair amount of my energy cursing at various deities for inflicting this experience upon me; my bad, Zeus, I should’ve kept my eye on the game.

Texas had 18 steals in this game, they ended 20% of Oklahoma State’s possessions with a steal. That’s a record in a Big 12 game for Texas, eclipsing a pair of 17-steal performances in the late 90s against Oklahoma and Texas A&M.

Texas played defense well enough to win the game, the steals being a big chunk of them limiting Oklahoma State to 0.83 PPP. Other than Kalib Boone putting on a show - and honestly, if I told you Cade Cunningham would go 5-22 from the field, you’d probably take it - Texas kept Oklahoma State in check defensively.

I don’t know about everybody, but I think I speak for at least a plurality of people who watched the game when I say that a lot of fans on both sides did not enjoy those overtime periods. It was sloppy play, bad offense, and a litany of bad decisions. So here is my proposal: institute a quality filter for extra overtime periods. If you watch an overtime and the teams combine to shoot, say, less than 30% from the floor and end the first OT tied, there is no second overtime. (Texas and Oklahoma State went 2-13, which is…less than 30%.) The game is decided by something else; free throws, one on one, rock/paper/scissors, fucking H.O.R.S.E., I’m open to ideas. We just don’t need to subject everyone to another five minutes of two teams taking turns punching itself in the dick. This is supposed to be entertaining, and that first OT did not qualify as entertainment so much as a reminder that life is fleeting and we should value what few hours we have left on this planet more than sitting through that.

Texas has lost three straight and 4 of 5, which is not great! They’re clearly not in early-season form and aren’t playing like a top-ten team. There are a lot of areas where they need to improve (more on one of these in a bit) and it’s incumbent upon Shaka Smart and his staff to sort it out quickly.

However:

The Oklahoma loss was understandable given COVID issues.

The Baylor loss was expected.

Consider that Texas is still on pace for a 10-6 conference record & had two conference games (plus a Kentucky game with the Wildcats looking like undercooked monkey brains on offense) postponed/cancelled to COVID, and those conference games were at TCU and home vs Iowa State. Texas playing at their median level (by which I mean not like the OSU debacle) probably - Pomeroy win probability was 80%+ for both, if memory serves - wins both of those games. This means that the last 3+ weeks is 4-4, with three losses to top-15 teams, their first-ever win over Kentucky, and they’re on pace for a 12-6 conference record. It’s not amazing, but are we freaking out as much if they’re sitting at 7-4 in conference and on track for a 2nd or 3rd place finish in conference? This team still has a likely path to finishing in the top three in the Big 12, and other than the OSU game they’ve played like a top-20 team. Is it a step down from where they were at a month ago? Absolutely, but is it an unexpected step down? That’s much less clear to me. The Big 12 is still really good this year and Texas was going to take some Ls. Texas has a chance to right the ship with a pair of winnable games this week. The only game in this stretch that’s been outright bad was the Oklahoma State game, and if that sort of performance gets repeated then it’s time to start worrying.

One thing that does give me pause: two of the guards seem unable or unwilling to finish at the rim. Courtney Ramey is the only guard who still somewhat consistently tries to get layups; Andrew Jones and Matt Coleman both seem to largely eschew layups for reasons I do not understand, Coleman moreso than AJ1. Coleman seems like he wants to get to the paint near the free throw line and either put up a jumper or kick it back out. This isn’t a bad thing when paired with a healthy desire to get to the rim, but he’s been averse to getting layups for a couple of games now and I’m starting to wonder if there’s something else going on. Is he not fully back from COVID? Is he injured? Earlier this season he was getting to the rim consistently, either finishing the shot or getting to the line. He’s had two free throw attempts in the last three games; that speaks to a lack of aggression, and it handicaps the team’s ability to score. Ramey still drives to the rim, but his shots are getting blocked at an alarming rate because he’s telegraphing intent and/or not putting his body into the defender. It’s almost as if he’s looking for the foul rather than the points; I’m tempering my criticism of him because for most of the OSU second half & OTs he was the only guard who wanted to score at the rim, but he was getting blocked repeatedly. These guards aren’t going to lead to many wins if they’re either not looking to penetrate or they’re not able to recognize defenders coming for their shot.

Royce Hamm accrued 5 fouls in 13 minutes of action this week, including a pretty mesmerizing 3 in 6 minutes against Oklahoma State. He’s up to 10.6 fouls per 40 minutes, which means he could foul out of a game and if they reinstated him he would foul out a second time with time to spare. It gets better: in conference play he’s averaging 13.9 per 40. That’s almost a triple-dismissal per game!

I have professed my desire to see him get 5 fouls in 5 minutes and every time he gets close I turn into Lou from ‘Hot Tub Time Machine’, actively rooting for the hotel employee to lose his arm.

You can do this Royce, I believe in you.

Tuesday, February 9th: at Kansas State 7 PM CT (ESPN+) - 91% KenPom win probability

Saturday, February 13th: vs TCU 1 PM CT (LHN) - 86% KenPom win probability

(Side note for people paying for a service solely to get access to games: this should be the last LHN game of the year?)

Please remember to check out Pretend We’re Football; our next show will come out by…Tuesday? Also we have a Twitter account now, which may be useful for those of you who want only my/our sports opinions. My next recap will come out after the TCU game. Also, I have a Patreon if you want to tip me for finishing the Oklahoma State game without breaking any/all nearby windows.

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