I find myself watching games and saying “this team is what it is” a lot, because the themes don’t really change between games and the gap between the floor and the ceiling for this team in any given game is (for better or worse) pretty small compared to some previous Longhorns teams. Texas feels pretty predictable, and the ways teams will or won’t beat them are basically the same in a given game. It’s almost a flowchart at this point involving whether they win the turnover battle (more on this later), if Marcus Carr is Good Marcus or Bad Marcus, and/or if one or more of Andrew Jones and Courtney Ramey are going off offensively. These three things seem to dictate the outcome most nights, and it doesn’t seem like much in terms of game-planning or non-Licon roster decisions is really unexpected. This team is what it is.

I think Porter Moser is a very good coach, but I do not understand the deployment of Groves in this game. Texas made it obvious early and often that !) they were going to deny him the ball and 2) when he got the ball in the post they were going to double him aggressively. Moser’s response to this was…to keep trying to feed him in the post? Groves is a stretch-five, he’s shooting nearly 41% from three on 47 attempts. How many times did he get the ball on the perimeter? Zero. It wasn’t that Texas was actively denying him perimeter touches, Oklahoma wasn’t interested in getting him outside shots. I didn’t get it.

There was a lot of talk going into this game about Texas needing to be more aggressive, which is fine and all as a talking point. The reality is that the refs were calling any and all minor contact early in this game so it was a smart play by both Texas and Oklahoma - not that the Sooners did it enough - to force contact and get to the line. Texas was trying to be more aggressive, but they also were doing it with a ref crew who was interested in rewarding that sort of thing. I don’t mean to diminish Texas getting to the free throw line, that’s what they need to do. They saw the refs had a tight whistle and they went to town, good on them.

It didn’t really matter in the outcome, but early on Oklahoma did some of the same soft hedge/drop coverage against Carr and it still kept him out of the paint. To Carr’s credit, he didn’t turn the ball over a ton in response; his 5/0 ATO was good enough to notch a win.

Texas was gashed by Iowa State’s crisp cuts over and over in the first half; the Cyclones don’t have great offensive numbers so far this season (#111 in adjusted offensive efficiency) but you can see some really impressive ball movement from their off-ball players. It’s a style that can take advantage of a really aggressive defense like Texas plays; if the Longhorns defenders are playing active denial on one-pass-away players, they can get back-cut. Iowa State did this repeatedly, but more than just that they did a great job of not letting the ball stick with one player. I saw so many instances of them running around a screen, back-cutting on a defender, and running around a screen before back-cutting on a defender in the first half. Texas did a better job of covering the cuts in the second half, but if you watch the game again pay attention to the Cyclones movement without the ball.

I do not know Tristen Licon, but Lance Blanks seems to think the former D-3 guard is - and I don’t mean to use hyperbole - a cross between Ray Allen and Jesus. To the rest of us* he’s a guy who gets a couple minutes a game in garbage time against creampuffs.

*not applicable to Chris Beard

Look, I get that Texas wasn’t up to its usual level defensively, and that sometimes as a coach you have to try to mix things up or use some of your tries-hard-but-isn’t-very-good reserves to send a message, so bringing in Licon and Avery Benson for a minute or two to sit your starters down and show them they need to pick it up is a reasonable tactic. The thing is, Beard played Licon for 11 minutes. With the game in the balance. When he wasn’t hitting shots. In a game where they were behind. Tristen Licon played almost as many minutes as Dylan Disu (15) and Tre’ Mitchell (16) in a game where Timmy Allen was constantly in foul trouble; it was bizarre. It’s one thing to say that Licon is going to help your defense (questionable) but if he’s not going nuclear from deep (0-1) in a game where you’re down by as many as 15 points, he’s another self-inflicted headwind to success when you gotta, you know, score more than your opponent. Is anyone in the Big 12 afraid of being guarded by Licon? He’s not exactly the second coming of Dogus Balbay, so why is he out there for 11 minutes? What are guys like Jase Febres and Devin Askew thinking sitting on the bench watching Licon get high-leverage time instead of them? The crystalization of this issue happened with 1:27 left in the game when Gabe Kalscheur hit Izaiah Brockington with a pass and he had a straight-line drive to dunk the ball and effectively ice the game for the Cyclones. You know who was jumping to contest and a few inches from being able to block the shot? Tristen Licon, who was on the floor instead of *checks notes* Dylan Disu. You think maybe Disu could have altered that shot better than Licon? Just a bit? I have many questions about this…what I will charitably call “tactic” and there are few acceptable answers.

Andrew Jones has been the only consistent offensive threat the last two games, putting up 22 points on 7-15 shooting (6-7 FTs) against Oklahoma and 18 points on 6-10 shooting (2-2 FTs) against Iowa State. His efficiency is masking some serious offensive deficiencies from this squad. If AJ1 had an off night against Oklahoma, Texas might be on a three-game losing streak right now. Regardless, it’s good to see him find his stroke and (mostly) taking better shots. The Longhorns need it something fierce.

Texas made its name defensively in the nonconference schedule by forcing a high percentage of turnovers, and even after the Iowa State game they’re still forcing turnovers on 26.3% of defensive possessions compared to turning it over 17.6% of offensive possessions. That’s a net of 8.7%, which is substantial. I’ve mentioned a couple of times previously that I suspected the percentage forced might drop some in conference play and it has, to 20.6%, which is a sizeable drop but still in roughly the top 25% of D-I if it was their season average. That’s a good but not elite number, enough that it should drive an above-average defense. And it does! enormous Stephen A Smith inhale HOWEVER, Texas is also turning it over more often on offense, currently at 19.7% in conference play. That net has dropped from 8.7% to 0.9%, which is one of the primary reasons the games have tilted away from Texas. Texas is not good enough offensively to make up for losing the turnover battle, and - while I understand correlation is not always causation - this stat is arguably becoming the defining statistic of conference play. When Texas handily wins the turnover percentage battle (WVU, OU), they win the game; when the turnover percentages are pretty even (KSU), the games are tight; and when the turnover percentages favor the opponent (OSU, ISU), Texas usually loses.

As of the time I write this, Texas is still without a Q1 win (0-4). Their next chance to pick up one in a game isn’t until January 25th at TCU (currently #58 in NET), though they could get one in the interim if Oklahoma jumps into the top 30 (they’re #35). Texas will ultimately have somewhere around 15 chances to pick up Q1 wins so it’s not panic time yet, but at the rate they are converting these opportunities it seems pretty unlikely Texas is going to put together a .500 or better record in Q1. The window on Texas getting a protected seed (usually defined as 1-4 in a region) is closed until further notice; most bracketologists have Texas in the 6-8 range and while losing to a higher-ranked Iowa State on the road won’t seriously damage their spot in the seed order, it is yet another missed opportunity to improve their spot. I don’t think Texas is in any real danger of missing the NCAA Tournament yet, but if they finish their first 8 conference games worse than 6-2 then a sub-.500 conference record becomes a very significant possibility and things get really sketchy. For whatever it’s worth, I sat down on January 10th and sketched out my guess on how the season ends. I had Texas at 10-8, but initially I had them at 8-10; the games I flipped from losses to wins after digging into the opponents further were the OU away game and the Tech home game, but that Tech game could easily end up a loss for the Longhorns.

For transparency, this is what I put down on January 10th. The green are games I got right, the yellow are the games I flipped after looking into it further, and I’ll mark the incorrect ones red if/when they happen. (They will definitely happen.)

Yes, I have Texas going 1-5 against Tech, Kansas, and Baylor. I could see 2-4 just as easily as 0-6 at this point. Does anyone really feel like arguing Texas is going to go .500 or better with the data we have to this point?

Tuesday, January 18th: vs Kansas State 7:30 PM CT (LHN)

Saturday, January 22nd: vs Oklahoma State 1:00 PM CT (ESPN/ESPN2)

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