Texas ended last season with a sensation that was equal parts blue balls and the lingering aroma of Grandpa’s bratwurst-powered farts in a car with no functioning windows; there were a lot of mixed emotions and the not-faint-enough stench of the regular-season-ending Oklahoma State blowout. As what seems to be the norm for a Shaka Smart season, both his haters and his backers had data to back up their view of what constitutes his program. The haters can seize on another season on the bubble and a handful of massive blowouts, the backers can offer a rebuttal of the five-game win streak and a team which didn’t give up when most people (including yours truly) did. In many ways, last season was a microcosm of the Shaka Smart tenure: frustrating results, glimpses of potential, and a boatload of shit luck. I made my call that his tenure should come to an end right before said win streak and COVID-19 changed the math on a tough decision for CDC, and one win streak isn’t going to change the overarching view I have right now.

(Boy, I really know how to get the fanbase excited; I’m less than 200 words in and I’ve already reminded everyone I think the coach should’ve been fired. I’m available for children’s birthday parties, it’s basically like this but with more cursing.)

There is enough data on Smart to create a reasonable baseline for what his program is likely to be on an average year. After five years, it’s probably pretty safe to say that the 11-22 season is an aberration; none of his seasons before or since plumbed those depths and this year shouldn’t look like that, either. He is unlikely to field a team like the 11-22 squad very often, the rest of his teams from a W/L & conference finisher perspective are pretty similar. Up to this point he is basically a .500 coach in conference play, his teams sit solidly on the bubble more often than not, they play above-average defense, the offense is streaky with a high ceiling & low floor, and they’re going to play slow. Basically, in an average year his teams resemble something like a 10-seed in the NCAA Tournament. It’s not awful, but not what Texas hoped for when they lured him away from VCU. It’s basically the results that got Rick Barnes shipped out.

There are three years left on Shaka Smart’s contract and the massive effects of the virus on Texas Longhorns revenue provide a pretty powerful reason for letting Smart coach out his current contract, if CDC can save a few million dollars by Smart playing out the string it will help with any number of other ongoing fiscal issues (more on this later). Plus, it gives Del Conte the opportunity to say he gave Smart every possible chance to turn things around. I would guess this is the most likely outcome, though things can and will change; if you had asked me three years ago what I would be doing in 2020 I don’t think I would have answered “avoiding all humans due to a pandemic”. I would have answered “avoiding all humans”, then gone back to playing video games with the multi-player features set to ‘friends-only’ on an account with zero friends.

This season looks promising for reasons I will get into later, but the short version is that Texas is hitting the peak of their talent cycle. Smart has been building the depth chart for the last few years and is finally at the point where they’re less dependent upon freakish freshmen than they’ve been since his first year when he had a cadre of Barnes seniors on board. That should portend an improvement in win totals, at least in percentage if not in aggregate (thanks due to COVID knocking 5-6 games off every program’s schedule).

Before I get into where things could go, here’s a reference point for what the 2021-2022 Texas Longhorns depth chart will look like barring unforeseen departures:

Shaka having a uniquely long (for a high-major program) runway could mean that unlike many coaches he gets to be around to see the fruits of his efforts. This season and the next should be pretty good teams with high ceilings and pretty high floors; if there aren’t a bunch of transfers or early defections, the roster in both seasons will be experienced, fronted mostly by upper-classmen, and full of athleticism. Both this year and the roster mentioned above should make the NCAA Tournament and with the potential to at least make the second weekend, which would allow Smart and his staff time to do what few coaches get to do: maintain a stocked cupboard. The roster time bomb Smart had to deal with after his first season was severe - he didn’t handle it particularly well, but this is the half-full section - and keeping most/all of these guys on the 40 Acres would allow him to build a more normal pipeline of talent that isn’t as young as years two through four of his tenure were. Subsequent teams could have a mix of older and younger players, with no class super-heavy on any one position, and with freshmen earning their minutes over being shoved into the limelight out of ncessity. One of the main ingredients to being a regular contender is effective year-over-year roster management, and it is one of the things Smart has significantly improved upon over the years. I particularly like the ‘18 & ‘19 classes for their depth & composition, and the ‘21 class could end up the same way. Plus, it allows Smart to hit the transfer market to fill a spot with a high-value player here and there rather than working overtime to bondo half the lineup. It’s just a better place to be working from than most coaches have to operate.

The next two years could be a launching point for a Texas program that is regularly in the top half of the Big 12, contending against the best in the Big 12, and spending very little time in bubble discussions. Speaking for myself, I’d much rather be squabbling over whether Texas is a four or five seed than where they are now; it’s not the promised land, but it’s a fair bit closer than the Longhorns have been since 2011.

This level of performance - making March Madness 4 of 6* years with 3-4 wins in the tourney and a couple top-4ish Big 12 finishes - along with Smart’s off-court work (his players are rarely in trouble, they graduate, etc.) is likely enough to earn him an extension going into his final season and win a fair number of fans back on his side.

(*I’m not counting the COVID year, if you want to include it maybe call it 4.5 of 7 as they were right on the cut line for the tourney.)

My fear of Shaka’s inability to handle a deep bench are realized and instead of a good 8 or 9-man rotation this squad never quite gels due to a half-dozen bench guys getting 7 minutes each. The team underwhelms on offense, playing a slow and ineffective style that neuters their athletic advantages. Texas spends the entire season on the wrong side of the bubble, rarely collecting the quality wins they need to get to March; there are a handful of blowouts and the team limps into the NCAA Tournament where they lose. A couple of key players transfer in the off-season, which forces Smart to rely on the ‘21 freshmen more than expected. It plays out in the same manner as a number of previous Smart seasons; a couple quality wins, a Big 12 record around 8-10, and a season of bubble discussion. They struggle-bus it into the tourney and get another participation ribbon.

This means CDC is sitting in his office; on one screen he sees a coaching resume that is below standard but not abysmal, levitating in the same ‘almost’ level of not-good-enough the Longhorns have been in for years, on the other screen he’s looking at revenue figures which have lagged for years due to the pandemic and post-pandemic economic consequences. Smart is coming to him for an extension because recruiting with only one year left on your contract and recruits able to read the tea leaves means he’s facing some unanswerable questions. The Texas fanbase is likely mostly tuned out at this point, having resigned themselves to a program which is just good enough to remind them they used to be better, but basketball revenue is a relatively inelastic number since most of it comes from TV deals rather than the gate.

Oh, and have I mentioned most of his men’s basketball hires elsewhere were pretty mediocre? Jamie Dixon is the best hire he made and that basically fell into his lap because Dixon was beating the pitchforks out of Pitt. The rest of his hires were re-treads or never-treads, and he’s never made a men’s basketball hire at this level before. So I’m not sold his list of potential replacements matches with mine, to put it mildly.

The theme of my glass half-empty isn’t hell, it’s purgatory. If you want to know the ending I least desire, it’s this one; I do not want to spend several more years in this gray area where none of the choices provide a clear advantage, and this one…let’s just say I think the path to a successful long-term outcome is narrow. I would prefer much brighter lines, either Smart kicks it up a notch or fails spectacularly. This middling bullshit is for the birds.

I wrote a whole scenario here that was a cascade of terribleness; injuries, diseases, a murder/suicide pact, and a lifetime contract were involved. Nobody should speak that evil into the universe, let’s just move on. The curse dies with me.

It isn’t a stretch to say the fate of Shaka Smart is intertwined with Tom Herman; both of them have substantial financial obligations if Texas wants to move on from either or both of them. For Herman it’s $15-20m depending on the timing, and for Shaka it’s the remaining balance of his contract, which is somewhere around $6.6m after this season. This is just to tell the existing coach to move on, bringing in another coach - especially one with a significant buyout of their own - along with assistants, etc., can easily double the price tag if CDC decides to go big. If Herman continues to scuffle and Texas boosters are fed up with him, they’re likely writing significant checks in December. Are they willing to pass the hat around for Smart three months later when basketball is clearly less important to them? I have my doubts unless the bottom really falls out on this basketball season, and even then CDC may be content to run the same playbook he did with Karen Aston: let Smart coach out his contract and simply not renew it. The money is already spent as it is, and in a pandemic-induced revenue bloodbath it might be the more financially prudent option to wait. It’s not like attendance figures could get much worse at the Drum, and enough people will be interested in the new arena in 2022 (assuming it opens on time) that they might do fine on attendance for a season just because everyone wants to see the new digs. Hopefully, the next couple of teams are good enough this math becomes moot, but time will tell.