March Madness is here, and Texas is sitting as a 3-seed in the East region.

(image courtesy of Yahoo by way of the snip tool, because I’m an honest thief)

The Texas draw is a mixed bag, and I can make a case Texas doesn’t get out of the first weekend just like I can they make the final weekend. They got a sneaky tough 14-seed to start (more on this in a bit), they could very well face either a surging Michigan State squad or a BYU squad that took Gonzaga to the limit in the second round, Bama is a tough out, and the only reason UConn is a 7 instead of a 4 is because Bouknight was injured for a chunk of the season. On the other side of the coin, Texas avoided Gonzaga & Baylor’s brackets and Michigan isn’t what they were earlier this year on account of Isaiah Livers’ having an unreleased “stress injury” in his foot so Texas might never see the top seed if, say St. Bonaventure or Florida State takes advantage. There isn’t a team in this region that Texas will be outmatched by physically (FSU a possible exception), and Texas is playing some of its best basketball of the year right now.

Let’s think of it another way; here’s how I would rank the 1,2, & 4 seeds in how much I would like to avoid them if I were Texas:

1-seeds: Gonzaga, Baylor, Illinois, Michigan

2-seeds: Houston, Bama, Ohio State, Iowa

4-seeds: Oklahoma State, Virginia, FSU, Purdue

By that metric, Texas got the best 1-seed, 3rd-best 2-seed, and 2nd-best 4-seed. If Texas can make it far enough to see those teams, they stand solid odds of advancing pretty far. There’s a reason why a handful of basketball analysts are picking Texas to advance to the Final Four. Clark Kellogg picked Texas to make the Final Four in the CBS bracket reveal, as well as Jeff Borzello.

Others have picked Bama, FSU, Michigan, but as of yet I haven’t seen anyone pick someone outside of the top 4 seeds to emerge from the East. In what may be the best news for Texas, neither Seth Davis or Dick Vitale picked Texas to cut down the nets.

(UPDATE: 3 of 16 CBB writers on The Athletic picked Texas to make it out, Bama was their most popular East region pick with 10 selections.)

I’m not going to say I love this bracket or that Texas is favored to make it out, but the path is there. They’ll be favored in any game leading up to the Sweet 16, and they won’t be a large underdog to anyone until the Final Four where they would likely face Gonzaga. I kinda don’t even hate the Gonzaga matchup? Or at the very least, it would be a highly entertaining game if it happens. That’s way down the road though, so let’s discuss the first weekend teams.

KenPom #86

Saturday, March 20th: 8:50 PM CT (Tru TV)

KenPom prediction: Texas 74-66, 75% win probability

ACU is 23-4, having run through the Southland conference with fairly little trouble. It gave Texas Tech trouble in Lubbock in December, though that was before Tech got McCullar back so it wasn’t the same Tech team Texas saw three times. The Wildcats also played (and lost to) Arkansas in December, so they’re 0-2 against high-major teams. They are a good defensive squad who can hit threes, and if they’re going to upset Texas they’ll need to continue to be the best in the nation at turning over their opponent. Offensively they’re fairly pedestrian, they win games by creating extra possessions through steals/turnovers rather than by being a hyper-efficient offense. This is a good team - their #86 ranking in KenPom is above TCU - but the type of team Texas should beat most nights. The 3-seed beats the 14-seed ~85% of the time, and while I don’t think Texas will be in that 15% I imagine very few of the other 3-seeds did, either.

KenPom #24

Saturday, March 20th: 8:40 PM CT (CBS)

KenPom prediction: TBD

This squad is interesting; they were the second-best team in their conference to Gonzaga and they play well on both ends of the floor. They have a number of guys who can hit a three and a former high-major center in Purdue transfer Matt Haarms helping them along. They don’t turn teams over on defense and while they make threes at a high percentage they don’t shoot a ton of them. Sims against Haarms would make for a fun contrast in styles. I suspect KenPom would rate this game as a toss-up as the Cougars are only a couple spots higher than Texas (currently #26). For all of the rational reasons, this would be the toughest first-weekend matchup for Texas.

KenPom #44

Thursday, March 18th: 8:57 PM CT (TBS)

KenPom prediction: UCLA 68-67, 55% win probability

UCLA started the season hot but has fizzled as of late, losing their last 4 games to the PAC-12 teams who finished above them in the regular season and the eventual tournament champs in Oregon State. They play solid but slow offense and less-solid but still slow defense. It’s Mick Cronin, he hasn’t played fast in a decade or more. They were one of the last teams in the field, and though they’re a modest favorite against Michigan State in the play-in game I don’t think they’re likely to make it past both their first four game and the BYU game.

KenPom #56

Thursday, March 18th: 8:57 PM CT (TBS)

KenPom prediction: UCLA 68-67, 55% win probability

This is the matchup I’m irrationally worried about because the Spartans are playing mostly better basketball right now. Their main issue is consistency; Michigan smoked them by 19 ten days ago, they then turned around and beat Michigan three days later. In the last three weeks the Spartans have beaten 3 top-10 teams and lost to Maryland twice by 18 & 11. Do I think the Spartans are capable of stringing together 5-6 games to make a deep run? I do not. But it only takes three for them to end Texas’ season and they’ve done that recently. Also, how many times has Michigan State ruined Texas’ aspirations in the last 15 years? It feels like a ton.

If Texas plays to their seed, they win two games and lose to Bama in the Sweet 16. I think the Sweet 16 is a reasonable bar for a successful run, and a Final Four appearance is the best-case scenario. While not making it out of the first weekend would be a disappointment, the first two games will not be easy.